Dynamic land use/cover change modelling

Landnutzungswandel ist eine komplexe Angelegenheit, die durch zahlreiche biophysikalische, sozioökonomische und wirtschaftliche Faktoren verursacht wird. Eine offensichtliche Art des Landnutzungswandels, die in den suburbanen Gebieten einer Metropole stattfindet, ist die Zersiedelung. Es gibt viele Modellierungstechniken, um dieses Phänomen zu studieren. Diese wurden seit den 1960iger Jahren entwickelt und finden weite Verbreitung. Einige dieser Modelle leiden unter dem Vernachlässigen signifikanter Variablen. Traditionelle Methoden wie etwa zellulare Automaten, Markow-Ketten-Modelle, zellulare Automaten-Markow-Modelle und logistische Regressionsmodelle, weisen inhärente Schwächen auf in Bezug auf menschliche Aktivitäten in der Umwelt. Das liegt daran, dass der Mensch der Hauptakteur in der Transformation der Umwelt ist und die suburbanen Gebiete durch Niederlassungspräferenzen und Lebensstil prägt. Das Hauptziel dieser Dissertation ist es, einige dieser traditionellen Techniken zu untersuchen, um ihre Vor- und Nachteile zu identifizieren. Diese Modelle werden miteinander verglichen, um ihre Funktionalität zu hinterfragen. Obwohl die Methodologie zur Evaluierung agentenbasierter Modelle unzureichend ist, wurde hier versucht, ein selbst-kalibriertes agentenbasiertes Modell für den Großraum Teheran zu erstellen. Einige Variablen, die in der Wirklichkeit die Zersiedelung im Studiengebiet kontrollieren, wurden durch Expertenwissen und ähnliche Studien extrahiert. Drei Hauptagenten, die mit der Ausbreitung von Städten zu tun haben, wurden definiert: Entwickler, Bewohner, Behörden. Jeder einzelne Agent beeinflusst Variablen; d.h. die Entscheidungen eines Agenten werden von einer Reihe realer Variablen beeinflusst. Das Verhalten der einzelnen Agenten wurde in einer GIS Umgebung kodiert und anschließend zusammengeführt, um einen Prototyp zur Simulation der Landnutzungsänderung zu erzeugen. Dieser Geosimulations-Prototyp ist in der Lage, die Quantität und die Lage von Landnutzungsänderungen insbesondere in der Umgebung von Teheran zu simulieren. Dieses agentenbasierte Modell zieht Nutzen aus der Stärke traditioneller Techniken wie etwa zellularen Automaten zur Änderungsallokation, Markow-Modellen zur Schätzung der Quantität der Änderung und einer Gewichtung der individuellen Faktoren. Eine detaillierte Diskussion der Implementierung der unterschiedlichen Methoden sowie eine Stärken-Schwächen-Analyse werden präsentiert und die Ergebnisse mit der tatsächlichen Situation verglichen, um die Modelle zu verifizieren. In dieser Arbeit wurden GIS Funktionen verwendet und zusätzliche Funktionen in Python programmiert. Diese Untersuchungen sollen Stadtplaner und Entscheidungsträger unterstützen, Städte und deren Ausbreitung zu simulieren.Land use/ cover change is a complex matter, which is caused by numerous biophysical, socio-economical and economic factors. An obvious form of land use change in the suburbs of the metropolis is defined as urban sprawl. There are a number of techniques to model this issue in order to investigate this topic. These models have been developed since the 1960s and are increasing in terms of quantity and popularity. Some of these models suffer from a lack of consideration of some significant variables. The traditional methods (e.g. Cellular Automata, the Markov Chain Model, the CA-Markov Model, and the Logistic Regression Model) have some inherent weaknesses in consideration of human activity in the environment. The particular significance of this problem is the fact that humans are the main actors in the transformation of the environment, and impact upon the suburbs due to their settlement preferences and lifestyle choices. The main aim of this thesis was to examine some of those traditional techniques in order to discover their considerable advantages and disadvantages. These models were compared against each other to challenge their functionality. Whereas there is a lack of methodology in evaluation of agent-based models, it was presumed to create a self-calibrated agent based model, by focussing on the Tehran metropolitan area. Some variables in reality control urban sprawl in the study area, which were extracted through the expert knowledge and similar studies. Three main agents, which deal with urban expansion, were defined: developers, residents, government. Each particular agent affects some variables, i.e. the agents‟ decisions are being influenced by a set of real variables. Agents‟ behaviours were coded in a GIS environment and, thereafter, the predefined agents were combined through a function to create a prototype for simulation of land change. This designed geosimulation prototype can simulate the quantity and location of changes specifically in the vicinity of the metropolis of Tehran. This customised agent-based model benefits from the strengths of traditional techniques; for instance, a Cellular Automata structure for change allocation, a Markov model for change quantity estimation and a weighting system to differentiate between the weights of the driving factors. A detailed discussion of each methodology implementation, and their weakness and strengths, is then presented, specifically comparing results with the reality to verify the models. In this research, we used only the GIS functionalities within GIS environments and the required functions were coded in the Python engine. This investigation will help urban planners and urban decision-makers to simulate cities and their movements over time

Stimulating implementation of sustainable development goals and conservation action:Predicting future land use/cover change in Virunga national park, Congo

The United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG’s) presents a roadmap and a concerted platform of action towards achieving sustainable and inclusive development, leaving no one behind, while preventing environmental degradation and loss of natural resources. However, population growth, increased urbanisation, deforestation, and rapid economic development has decidedly modified the surface of the earth, resulting in dramatic land cover changes, which continue to cause significant degradation of environmental attributes. In order to reshape policies and management frameworks conforming to the objectives of the SDG’s, it is paramount to understand the driving mechanisms of land use changes and determine future patterns of change. This study aims to assess and quantify future land cover changes in Virunga National Park in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by simulating a future landscape for the SDG target year of 2030 in order to provide evidence to support data-driven decision-making processes conforming to the requirements of the SDG’s. The study follows six sequential steps: (a) creation of three land cover maps from 2010, 2015 and 2019 derived from satellite images; (b) land change analysis by cross-tabulation of land cover maps; (c) submodel creation and identification of explanatory variables and dataset creation for each variable; (d) calculation of transition potentials of major transitions within the case study area using machine learning algorithms; (e) change quantification and prediction using Markov chain analysis; and (f) prediction of a 2030 land cover. The model was successfully able to simulate future land cover and land use changes and the dynamics conclude that agricultural expansion and urban development is expected to significantly reduce Virunga’s forest and open land areas in the next 11 years. Accessibility in terms of landscape topography and proximity to existing human activities are concluded to be primary drivers of these changes. Drawing on these conclusions, the discussion provides recommendations and reflections on how the predicted future land cover changes can be used to support and underpin policy frameworks towards achieving the SDG’s and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

Deep Learning for Detecting and Classifying Ocean Objects:Application of YoloV3 for Iceberg–Ship Discrimination

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) plays a remarkable role in ocean surveillance, with capabilities of detecting oil spills, icebergs, and marine traffic both at daytime and at night, regardless of clouds and extreme weather conditions. The detection of ocean objects using SAR relies on well-established methods, mostly adaptive thresholding algorithms. In most waters, the dominant ocean objects are ships, whereas in arctic waters the vast majority of objects are icebergs drifting in the ocean and can be mistaken for ships in terms of navigation and ocean surveillance. Since these objects can look very much alike in SAR images, the determination of what objects actually are still relies on manual detection and human interpretation. With the increasing interest in the arctic regions for marine transportation, it is crucial to develop novel approaches for automatic monitoring of the traffic in these waters with satellite data. Hence, this study aims at proposing a deep learning model based on YoloV3 for discriminating icebergs and ships, which could be used for mapping ocean objects ahead of a journey. Using dual-polarization Sentinel-1 data, we pilot-tested our approach on a case study in Greenland. Our findings reveal that our approach is capable of training a deep learning model with reliable detection accuracy. Our methodical approach along with the choice of data and classifiers can be of great importance to climate change researchers, shipping industries and biodiversity analysts. The main difficulties were faced in the creation of training data in the Arctic waters and we concluded that future work must focus on issues regarding training data

Crowdsourced-based mapping of historical west-to-east routes from the textual accounts of European Travelers

Ponencias, comunicaciones y pósters presentados en el 17th AGILE Conference on Geographic Information Science "Connecting a Digital Europe through Location and Place", celebrado en la Universitat Jaume I del 3 al 6 de junio de 2014.Through the centuries, numerous travellers and orientalists visited Persia (Iran) and described the country and its inhabitants in their travel writings. These travel accounts comprise valuable historical information about the people and their traditions. A literature on travel writings indicate that surprisingly, despite the importance of these recordings, the studies related to the different aspects of these travels, such as the travel routes and the varieties of the possible application of them on the modern time are relatively scarce. The current research deals with the travel routes of nine the most famous early modern European explorers. Accordingly, in addition to digitalizing and mapping the taken routes, the dynamics of their itineraries are analysed

Technical Guidelines to Extract and Analyze VGI from Different Platforms

An increasing number of Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) and social media platforms have been continuously growing in size, which have provided massive georeferenced data in many forms including textual information, photographs, and geoinformation. These georeferenced data have either been actively contributed (e.g., adding data to OpenStreetMap (OSM) or Mapillary) or collected in a more passive fashion by enabling geolocation whilst using an online platform (e.g., Twitter, Instagram, or Flickr). The benefit of scraping and streaming these data in stand-alone applications is evident, however, it is difficult for many users to script and scrape the diverse types of these data. On 14 June 2016, a pre-conference workshop at the AGILE 2016 conference in Helsinki, Finland was held. The workshop was called “LINK-VGI: LINKing and analyzing VGI across different platforms”. The workshop provided an opportunity for interested researchers to share ideas and findings on cross-platform data contributions. One portion of the workshop was dedicated to a hands-on session. In this session, the basics of spatial data access through selected Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) and the extraction of summary statistics of the results were illustrated. This paper presents the content of the hands-on session including the scripts and guidelines for extracting VGI data. Researchers, planners, and interested end-users can benefit from this paper for developing their own application for any region of the world

Impact assessment analysis of sea level rise in Denmark::A case study of falster island, guldborgsund

Anthropogenically-induced climate change is expected to be the contributing cause of sea level rise and severe storm events in the immediate future. While Danish authorities have downscaled the future oscillation of sea level rise across Danish coast lines in order to empower the coastal municipalities, there is a need to project the local cascading effects on different sectors. Using geospatial analysis and climate change projection data, we developed a proposed workflow to analyze the impacts of sea level rise in the coastal municipalities of Guldborgsund, located in Southeastern Denmark as a case study. With current estimates of sea level rise and storm surge events, the island of Falster can expect to have up to 19% of its landmass inundated, with approximately 39% of the population experiencing sea level rise directly. Developing an analytical workflow can allow stakeholders to understand the extent of expected sea level rise and consider alternative methods of prevention at the national and local levels. The proposed approach along with the choice of data and open source tools can empower other communities at risk of sea level rise to plan their adaptation

Does land use and landscape contribute to self-harm? A sustainability cities framework

Self-harm has become one of the leading causes of mortality in developed countries. The overall rate for suicide in Canada is 11.3 per 100,000 according to Statistics Canada in 2015. Between 2000 and 2007 the lowest rates of suicide in Canada were in Ontario, one of the most urbanized regions in Canada. However, the interaction between land use, landscape and self-harm has not been significantly studied for urban cores. It is thus of relevance to understand the impacts of land-use and landscape on suicidal behavior. This paper takes a spatial analytical approach to assess the occurrence of self-harm along one of the densest urban cores in the country: Toronto. Individual self-harm data was gathered by the National Ambulatory Care System (NACRS) and geocoded into census tract divisions. Toronto’s urban landscape is quantified at spatial level through the calculation of its land use at di erent levels: (i) land use type, (ii) sprawl metrics relating to (a) dispersion and (b) sprawl/mix incidence; (iii) fragmentation metrics of (a) urban fragmentation and (b) density and (iv) demographics of (a) income and (b) age. A stepwise regression is built to understand the most influential factors leading to self-harm from this selection generating an explanatory model.This research was supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research Strategic Team Grant in Applied Injury Research # TIR-103946 and the Ontario Neurotrauma Foundation grantinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Towards initiating OpenLandMap founded on citizens’ science: The current status of land use features of OpenStreetMap in Europe

Ponencias, comunicaciones y pósters presentados en el 17th AGILE Conference on Geographic Information Science "Connecting a Digital Europe through Location and Place", celebrado en la Universitat Jaume I del 3 al 6 de junio de 2014.Land use inventories are important information sources for scholarly research, policy-makers, practitioners, and developers. A considerable amount of effort and monetary resources have been used to generate global/regional/local land use datasets. While remote sensing images and techniques as well as field surveying have been the main sources of determining land use features, in-field measurements of ground truth data collection for attributing those features has been always a challenging step in terms of time, money, as well as information reliability. In recent years, Web 2.0 technologies and GPS-enabled devices have advanced citizen science (CS) projects and made them user-friendly for volunteered citizens to collect and share their knowledge about geographical objects to these projects. Surprisingly, one of the leading CS projects i.e., OpenStreetMap (OSM) collects and provides land use features. The collaboratively collected land use features from multiple citizens could greatly support the challenging component of land use mapping which is in-field data collection. Hence, the main objective of this study is to calculate the completeness of land use features to OSM across Europe. The empirical findings reveal that the completeness index varies widely ranging from almost 2% for Iceland to 96% for Bosnia and Herzegovina. More precisely, more than 50% of land use features of eight European countries are mapped. This shows that CS can play a role in land use mapping as an alternative data source, which can partially contribute to the existing inventories for updating purposes

Perspectives on “Earth Observation and GIScience for Agricultural Applications”

Current and future scenarios for global agricultural systems under a changing climate require innovative approaches, novel datasets, and methods for improving environmental resource management and better data-driven decision-making [...